Dry Mixed Muddy
Loamcast Intelligence

Condition Forecast for Upper Hawksbill Trail

Estimated trail surface condition and wetness breakdown for Upper Hawksbill Trail in Shenandoah, Us-va.

US-VA / Shenandoah

Upper Hawksbill Trail

Length: 1.64 km

Surface Score
9 /10
Rideable
Upper Hawksbill Trail is generally rideable today, but soft shaded sections may still be damp after 3.4 mm of rain in the last 48 hours.

Why this matters: Loamcast provides an automated mud forecast and MTB trail conditions overview to assess wet trail risk. By analyzing recent weather, soil, and terrain elevation signals, it operates as an off-road cycling route checker and GPX route condition analysis tool, helping riders evaluate gravel route conditions before heading out.

Good window now Current model state is dry enough for normal riding on this object.
Soft-surface sensitivity This surface class can deteriorate quickly after rain; treat puddles and rutting as a stronger signal than the average score.
Last updated: 2026-07-28 08:34 EDT (America/New_York) Weather window: last 72h History: 7 recorded days

Why this road is dry / fast today

  • Surface: paved surface drains quickly and does not accumulate mud.
  • Recent rain: no measurable rain in the last 24h.
  • Terrain: forest cover reduces sun exposure, slowing down surface drying.
  • Confidence: High — based on weather and terrain models; no recent user observations are available.

Condition Breakdown

Surface
Used as a drainage and grip modifier in the condition model.
 Unpaved
Road Solidity
Loose soil or sand, deforms under pressure.
 Soft / Loose Earth
Moisture Sensitivity
Absorbs water quickly and turns soft. Dries slowly, especially under tree canopy.
 High
Rutting & Washout Risk
Dry or paved base. Minimal risk of ruts, pooling, or washouts.
 Low
Recent rain
3.4 mm in 48h, 4.1 mm in 72h.
 0.7 mm / 24h
Weather pressure
Multiplier from current weather state and recent precipitation memory.
 0.57x
Temperature
Affects drying rate via surface evaporation.
 21.6 °C
Humidity
High relative humidity slows down surface moisture evaporation.
 61%
Cloud Cover
Overcast skies block direct sun, reducing drying speed.
 100%
Segment spread
2 mapped segment(s) scored for this object.
 9-9 / 10
Confidence
Weather source: open-meteo-history + open-meteo-forecast.
 High

Recorded 7-Day Condition History

Date Score Label Rain
2026-07-22 9/10 Dry / Fast 12.1 mm
2026-07-23 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.0 mm
2026-07-24 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.0 mm
2026-07-25 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.6 mm
2026-07-26 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.5 mm
2026-07-27 9/10 Dry / Fast 2.9 mm
2026-07-28 9/10 Dry / Fast -

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Other Us-va mud forecast pages → More routes in Shenandoah → Explore Loamcast methodology → Data sources for this forecast → Model limitations & disclaimer →