Dry Mixed Muddy
Loamcast Intelligence

Condition Forecast for Porcupine 4x4 Trail

Estimated trail surface condition and wetness breakdown for Porcupine 4x4 Trail in Moab / Arches, Us-ut.

US-UT / Moab / Arches

Porcupine 4x4 Trail

Length: 12.20 km

Surface Score
9 /10
Rideable
Porcupine 4x4 Trail is generally rideable today, but soft shaded sections may still be damp after 1.8 mm of rain in the last 48 hours.

Why this matters: Loamcast provides an automated mud forecast and MTB trail conditions overview to assess wet trail risk. By analyzing recent weather, soil, and terrain elevation signals, it operates as an off-road cycling route checker and GPX route condition analysis tool, helping riders evaluate gravel route conditions before heading out.

Good window now Current model state is dry enough for normal riding on this object.
Low rain memory Recent rain totals are low, so weather is not currently pushing the model toward mud.
Soft-surface sensitivity This surface class can deteriorate quickly after rain; treat puddles and rutting as a stronger signal than the average score.
Last updated: 2026-07-28 06:27 MDT (America/Denver) Weather window: last 72h History: 7 recorded days

Why this road is dry / fast today

  • Surface: holds water and can become muddy.
  • Recent rain: no measurable rain in the last 24h.
  • Terrain: forest cover reduces sun exposure, slowing down surface drying.
  • Confidence: Medium — based on weather and terrain models; no recent user observations are available.

Condition Breakdown

Surface
Used as a drainage and grip modifier in the condition model.
 Ground
Road Solidity
Semi-compacted natural soil mixed with gravel base.
 Mixed Dirt & Gravel
Moisture Sensitivity
Absorbs water quickly and turns soft. Dries slowly, especially under tree canopy.
 High
Rutting & Washout Risk
Dry or paved base. Minimal risk of ruts, pooling, or washouts.
 Low
Recent rain
1.8 mm in 48h, 1.8 mm in 72h.
 1.4 mm / 24h
Weather pressure
Multiplier from current weather state and recent precipitation memory.
 0.39x
Temperature
Affects drying rate via surface evaporation.
 22.9 °C
Humidity
High relative humidity slows down surface moisture evaporation.
 54%
Cloud Cover
Overcast skies block direct sun, reducing drying speed.
 0%
Segment spread
4 mapped segment(s) scored for this object.
 9-9 / 10
Confidence
Weather source: open-meteo-history + open-meteo-forecast.
 Medium

Recorded 7-Day Condition History

Date Score Label Rain
2026-07-22 9/10 Dry / Fast 11.7 mm
2026-07-23 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.8 mm
2026-07-24 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.0 mm
2026-07-25 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.0 mm
2026-07-26 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.4 mm
2026-07-27 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.3 mm
2026-07-28 9/10 Dry / Fast -

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Other Us-ut mud forecast pages → More routes in Moab / Arches → Explore Loamcast methodology → Data sources for this forecast → Model limitations & disclaimer →