Dry Mixed Muddy
Loamcast Intelligence

Condition Forecast for Trillium Gap Trail

Estimated trail surface condition and wetness breakdown for Trillium Gap Trail in Great Smoky Mountains, Us-tn.

US-TN / Great Smoky Mountains

Trillium Gap Trail

Length: 14.29 km

Surface Score
3 /10
Likely Muddy
Trillium Gap Trail has high mud risk and is likely muddy or waterlogged today due to 8.6 mm of rain in the last 48 hours. Consider avoiding or using paved fallbacks.

Why this matters: Loamcast provides an automated mud forecast and MTB trail conditions overview to assess wet trail risk. By analyzing recent weather, soil, and terrain elevation signals, it operates as an off-road cycling route checker and GPX route condition analysis tool, helping riders evaluate gravel route conditions before heading out.

Wait for drying The current model state points to wet or muddy conditions. Riding may be slow and damaging.
Soft-surface sensitivity This surface class can deteriorate quickly after rain; treat puddles and rutting as a stronger signal than the average score.
Last updated: 2026-07-28 07:27 CDT (America/Chicago) Weather window: last 72h History: 7 recorded days

Why this road is wet / muddy today

  • Surface: holds water and can become muddy.
  • Recent rain: light rain (4.3 mm) in the last 24h.
  • Terrain: no strong lowland/water-retention signal; open exposure aids drying.
  • Confidence: Medium — based on weather and terrain models; no recent user observations are available.

Condition Breakdown

Surface
Used as a drainage and grip modifier in the condition model.
 Ground
Moisture Sensitivity
Absorbs water quickly and turns soft. Dries slowly, especially under tree canopy.
 High
Rutting & Washout Risk
Damp or loose base. Risk of minor washouts, soft edges, and standing water puddles.
 Moderate
Recent rain
8.6 mm in 48h, 12.6 mm in 72h.
 4.3 mm / 24h
Weather pressure
Multiplier from current weather state and recent precipitation memory.
 1.26x
Temperature
Affects drying rate via surface evaporation.
 22.2 °C
Humidity
High relative humidity slows down surface moisture evaporation.
 60%
Cloud Cover
Overcast skies block direct sun, reducing drying speed.
 0%
Segment spread
9 mapped segment(s) scored for this object.
 3-4 / 10
Confidence
Weather source: open-meteo-history + open-meteo-forecast.
 Medium

Recorded 7-Day Condition History

Date Score Label Rain
2026-07-22 8/10 Good 3.4 mm
2026-07-23 5/10 Mixed / Damp 35.3 mm
2026-07-24 4/10 Wet / Muddy 22.4 mm
2026-07-25 5/10 Mixed / Damp 5.0 mm
2026-07-26 5/10 Mixed / Damp 5.2 mm
2026-07-27 6/10 Mixed / Damp 3.5 mm
2026-07-28 6/10 Mixed / Damp -

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Other Us-tn mud forecast pages → More routes in Great Smoky Mountains → Explore Loamcast methodology → Data sources for this forecast → Model limitations & disclaimer →