Dry Mixed Muddy
Loamcast Intelligence

Condition Forecast for Tonahutu Creek Trail

Estimated trail surface condition and wetness breakdown for Tonahutu Creek Trail in Rocky Mountain / Estes Park, Us-co.

US-CO / Rocky Mountain / Estes Park

Tonahutu Creek Trail

Length: 13.99 km

Surface Score
5 /10
Mixed / Drying
Tonahutu Creek Trail has mixed conditions with damp/muddy spots, currently drying after 12.9 mm of recent rain. Use caution on soft unpaved sections.

Why this matters: Loamcast provides an automated mud forecast and MTB trail conditions overview to assess wet trail risk. By analyzing recent weather, soil, and terrain elevation signals, it operates as an off-road cycling route checker and GPX route condition analysis tool, helping riders evaluate gravel route conditions before heading out.

Use judgment Expect mixed surface conditions. Avoid low spots and turn back if the surface is deforming under tyres.
Soft-surface sensitivity This surface class can deteriorate quickly after rain; treat puddles and rutting as a stronger signal than the average score.
Last updated: 2026-07-28 06:27 MDT (America/Denver) Weather window: last 72h History: 7 recorded days

Why this road is mixed / damp today

  • Surface: holds water and can become muddy.
  • Recent rain: light rain (6.8 mm) in the last 24h.
  • Terrain: no strong lowland/water-retention signal; open exposure aids drying.
  • Confidence: Medium — based on weather and terrain models; no recent user observations are available.

Condition Breakdown

Surface
Used as a drainage and grip modifier in the condition model.
 Ground
Moisture Sensitivity
Absorbs water quickly and turns soft. Dries slowly, especially under tree canopy.
 High
Rutting & Washout Risk
Saturated soft ground. Significant risk of deep ruts, deforming under load, and local washouts.
 High
Recent rain
12.9 mm in 48h, 14.2 mm in 72h.
 6.8 mm / 24h
Weather pressure
Multiplier from current weather state and recent precipitation memory.
 1.10x
Temperature
Affects drying rate via surface evaporation.
 7.8 °C
Humidity
High relative humidity slows down surface moisture evaporation.
 63%
Cloud Cover
Overcast skies block direct sun, reducing drying speed.
 0%
Segment spread
2 mapped segment(s) scored for this object.
 5-5 / 10
Confidence
Weather source: open-meteo-history + open-meteo-forecast.
 Medium

Recorded 7-Day Condition History

Date Score Label Rain
2026-07-22 9/10 Dry / Fast 8.2 mm
2026-07-23 8/10 Good 8.9 mm
2026-07-24 8/10 Good 1.4 mm
2026-07-25 8/10 Good 0.8 mm
2026-07-26 8/10 Good 6.2 mm
2026-07-27 8/10 Good 5.7 mm
2026-07-28 8/10 Good -

Explore Loamcast

Other Us-co mud forecast pages → More routes in Rocky Mountain / Estes Park → Explore Loamcast methodology → Data sources for this forecast → Model limitations & disclaimer →