Dry Mixed Muddy
Loamcast Intelligence

Condition Forecast for Formatine and Buchan Way

Estimated trail surface condition and wetness breakdown for Formatine and Buchan Way in Southeast Scotland, Gb-sct.

GB-SCT / Southeast Scotland

Formatine and Buchan Way

Length: 48.90 km

Surface Score
9 /10
Rideable
Formatine and Buchan Way is generally rideable today, but soft shaded sections may still be damp after 10.8 mm of rain in the last 48 hours.

Why this matters: Loamcast provides an automated mud forecast and MTB trail conditions overview to assess wet trail risk. By analyzing recent weather, soil, and terrain elevation signals, it operates as an off-road cycling route checker and GPX route condition analysis tool, helping riders evaluate gravel route conditions before heading out.

Good window now Current model state is dry enough for normal riding on this object.
Hard surface The mapped surface should shed water faster than dirt or clay sections.
Uneven segments One or more mapped segments score as low as 6/10, so the route may feel worse than the headline in places.
Weather degraded Weather coverage is degraded for this location. Treat the score as lower confidence until the cache refreshes.
Last updated: 2026-08-15 01:16 BST (Europe/London) Weather window: last 72h History: 7 recorded days

Why this road is dry / fast today

  • Surface: gravel surface usually drains faster than dirt, but loose sections can stay damp after rain.
  • Recent rain: light rain (6.0 mm) in the last 24h.
  • Terrain: no strong lowland/water-retention signal; open exposure aids drying.
  • Confidence: Medium — based on weather and terrain models; no recent user observations are available.

Condition Breakdown

Surface
Used as a drainage and grip modifier in the condition model.
 Unpaved
Road Solidity
Hard-packed gravel/stone with minimal loose material.
 Compacted Gravel
Moisture Sensitivity
Excellent water runoff. Structure remains firm and mud-free.
 Low
Rutting & Washout Risk
Damp or loose base. Risk of minor washouts, soft edges, and standing water puddles.
 Moderate
Recent rain
10.8 mm in 48h, 11.1 mm in 72h.
 6.0 mm / 24h
Weather pressure
Multiplier from current weather state and recent precipitation memory.
 0.72x
Temperature
Affects drying rate via surface evaporation.
 16.2 °C
Humidity
High relative humidity slows down surface moisture evaporation.
 80%
Cloud Cover
Overcast skies block direct sun, reducing drying speed.
 86%
Winter Surface State
No material freeze-thaw signal was detected in available temperature history.
 Normal
Modeled Snow Depth
Gridded modeled snow depth; local trail cover can differ materially.
 0.0 cm
Freeze-Thaw Risk
Risk of top surface layer thawing into a mud slurry while underneath stays frozen.
 0%
Segment spread
31 mapped segment(s) scored for this object.
 6-10 / 10
Confidence
Weather source: open-meteo-history + open-meteo-forecast.
 Medium

Recorded 7-Day Condition History

Date Score Label Rain
2026-08-09 9/10 Dry / Fast 3.6 mm
2026-08-10 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.2 mm
2026-08-11 10/10 Dry / Fast 0.0 mm
2026-08-12 10/10 Dry / Fast 1.0 mm
2026-08-13 10/10 Dry / Fast 5.3 mm
2026-08-14 10/10 Dry / Fast 4.7 mm
2026-08-15 9/10 Dry / Fast -

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Other Gb-sct mud forecast pages → More routes in Southeast Scotland → Explore Loamcast methodology → Data sources for this forecast → Model limitations & disclaimer →