Dry Mixed Muddy
Loamcast Intelligence

Condition Forecast for Musteikos-Pogarendos kelias

Estimated trail surface condition and wetness breakdown for Musteikos-Pogarendos kelias in Dzūkija, Lt.

LT / Dzūkija

Musteikos-Pogarendos kelias

Length: 8.22 km

Surface Score
7 /10
Rideable / Mostly Dry
Musteikos-Pogarendos kelias is generally rideable today, but soft shaded sections may still be damp after 19.5 mm of rain in the last 48 hours.

Why this matters: Loamcast provides an automated mud forecast and MTB trail conditions overview to assess wet trail risk. By analyzing recent weather, soil, and terrain elevation signals, it operates as an off-road cycling route checker and GPX route condition analysis tool, helping riders evaluate gravel route conditions before heading out.

Generally rideable Conditions look usable, with minor damp spots still possible in shaded or lower sections.
Heavy recent rain 19.3 mm fell in the last 24h. Expect standing water and soft edges.
Weather degraded Weather coverage is degraded for this location. Treat the score as lower confidence until the cache refreshes.
Last updated: 2026-08-07 03:21 EEST (Europe/Vilnius) Weather window: last 72h History: 7 recorded days

Why this road is good today

  • Surface: gravel surface usually drains faster than dirt, but loose sections can stay damp after rain.
  • Recent rain: heavy rain (19.3 mm) in the last 24h, saturating the ground.
  • Terrain: no strong lowland/water-retention signal; open exposure aids drying.
  • Confidence: Medium — based on weather and terrain models; no recent user observations are available.

Condition Breakdown

Surface
Used as a drainage and grip modifier in the condition model.
 Gravel
Road Solidity
Hard-packed gravel/stone with minimal loose material.
 Compacted Gravel
Moisture Sensitivity
Drains moderately, but loose spots or potholes can hold moisture.
 Medium
Rutting & Washout Risk
Saturated soft ground. Significant risk of deep ruts, deforming under load, and local washouts.
 High
Recent rain
19.5 mm in 48h, 19.5 mm in 72h.
 19.3 mm / 24h
Weather pressure
Multiplier from current weather state and recent precipitation memory.
 0.54x
Temperature
Affects drying rate via surface evaporation.
 19.7 °C
Humidity
High relative humidity slows down surface moisture evaporation.
 100%
Winter Surface State
Temperature history is insufficient to classify the winter surface state.
 Unknown
Freeze-Thaw Risk
Risk of top surface layer thawing into a mud slurry while underneath stays frozen.
 0%
Segment spread
2 mapped segment(s) scored for this object.
 7-8 / 10
Confidence
Weather source: meteo-lt.
 Medium

Recorded 7-Day Condition History

Date Score Label Rain
2026-08-01 9/10 Dry / Fast 1.2 mm
2026-08-02 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.3 mm
2026-08-03 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.0 mm
2026-08-04 9/10 Dry / Fast 2.7 mm
2026-08-05 9/10 Dry / Fast 0.0 mm
2026-08-06 9/10 Dry / Fast 1.9 mm
2026-08-07 7/10 Good -

Explore Loamcast

Other Lt mud forecast pages → More routes in Dzūkija → Explore Loamcast methodology → Data sources for this forecast → Model limitations & disclaimer →